Today, former Utah governor Jon Huntsman is set to announce that he will end his bid for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. He will reportedly endorse former Massachusetts governor and fellow Mormon Mitt Romney.
In the most recent primary, New Hampshire, Huntsman came in third place with approximately 17%; this came after he had foregone Iowa and devoted all of his schedule and resources to the Granite State. In the next contest, South Carolina, however, Huntsman’s poll numbers are far more dismal. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average of polling data, from the Palmetto State, Huntsman was in sixth place with just about five percent of the vote. Furthermore, the news in another important early state, Florida, is just as bad, with the former governor pulling in about three and a half percent statewide.
One might believe that with a candidate drawing in so little support, his withdrawal and subsequent endorsement may not matter. In this case, however, it does presume to have some impact on the race inasmuch as the near-future primaries are concerned. Mitt Romney figures to be ahead right now in South Carolina, and though Huntsman’s endorsement may not move his voters into Romney’s camp, Romney’s views might. Huntsman voters are probably more moderate, as is their candidate, and with Romney being considered the most centrist of the remaining Republican candidates, the former Bay State governor figures to soak up the lion’s share of those votes. Whatever support Romney may add to his existing level as a result could be enough to ice the South Carolina primary, unless candidates like Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum can surge and surpass him in the final week.
In fact, it is conservatives like Gingrich and Santorum, and even Rick Perry, who are all being seen as splitting the conservative vote. Ron Paul, on the other hand, is drawing from a more libertarian crowd and appears to have a fixed share of the vote. In Romney’s case, he no longer has the problem of a moderate stealing votes from him, whereas Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry are all fighting over the same votes. Look for calls from the right in the coming days for Rick Perry, the conservative in the least-advantageous position, to drop out and endorse either Gingrich or Santorum to reduce vote-splitting. Even then, it would appear that one of the remaining two will have to gain a substantial advantage over the other to pose a serious challenge to Romney. Right now, the candidate with the best opportunity to do it would appear to be Newt Gingrich.
Though Huntsman was only banking on about five percent in South Carolina, those are five percent Romney could use, if in fact he gets them. It is not much, but it will doubtlessly make Gingrich and Santorum’s work just a little bit harder.
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