Why the South Carolina Primary Matters More

During presidential primary season, a great deal of importance is assigned to the Iowa Caucuses, as they are “first in the nation.” Another state which claims said status is New Hampshire, which is the first actual primary. Neither one of thee states, however, matters in the scheme of Republican primaries as much as South Carolina, the first southern state to vote.

It is not merely due to the fact that only once since 1972 have South Carolina Republican voters picked the nominee incorrectly (1976: Ronald Reagan won, but Gerald Ford was nominated). The reality is that the Republican Party has a large base of support in the south and that much of its mainstream runs through there. South Carolina is, in many ways, the “conservative firewall.”

Of the early primary states, South Carolina is the reddest kind of “red state” you’ll find. More than in states like Iowa or New Hampshire, primary voters in the state are more conservative, as the state itself is more conservative. If a primary candidate can win there, then they can presumably win anywhere — or anywhere that matters in the bigger picture of these primaries.

This becomes important with regards to one W. Mitt Romney. If the polls are to be believed — and if they hold over the next few weeks, which is no guarantee — Romney is now the favorite to win in this state. It is also quite well known that of the candidates, Romney is considered by conservatives to be more moderate. If a candidate like Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum, for example, wins South Carolina, it will be the first primary win this year for a “conservative alternative” and may lead to a coalescence around that candidate by the Tea Party and right-leaning voters. Should Romney punch through the conservative firewall, however, those on the right who wish to stop his nomination will not have much time to regroup, and there may exist a growing sense of inevitability.

This is what happened in 2008, as John McCain came up the middle in South Carolina while the conservative vote split between Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Thompson ended his campaign, but the anti-McCain vote remained split, and he won the nomination. So long as the anti-Romney vote is split, the possibility exists that history may repeat itself in 2012.

For Gingrich in particular, this is a contest he must win: Mitt Romney won comfortably in New Hampshire, the state bordering his own. Gingrich is from Georgia, which of course neighbors South Carolina. He, unlike the others, has home-field advantage here. Newt Gingrich might be the best-positioned of the conservatives in this state, and his own campaign believes he has to win here.

The field may very easily shrink following South Carolina, as it usually does. In 2012, just like in 2008, this state is a must-win for a number of candidates on the brink, especially conservatives who are ideologically in line with Palmetto State voters, and it may tell us quite a bit more about how the nomination race shapes up.