Florida voters can’t seem to make up their minds. At least, that’s what the polls say.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, outside of a few brief stretches, had the primary lead in the Sunshine State from early 2011 until the decline of Herman Cain and subsequent rise of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in November. From then until roughly around the time of the New Hampshire primary, Gingrich had maintained a substantial lead. With Romney’s big New Hampshire win came a rise once again in the Florida polls, but Gingrich’s South Carolina win put him back in the lead. Now, momentum seems to have swung back to Romney again with just a few days to go until the vote.
The time for choosing is upon them, however, as on Tuesday, January 31, the Florida Republican primary will take place. Their choices, as in South Carolina, will be Romney, Gingrich, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and Texas Congressman Ron Paul. It appears quite unlikely that either of the latter two will win Florida in their current standing, which makes this a two-person race between Romney and Gingrich.
On the one hand, you’ve got Romney, the Republican establishment choice, and Newt Gingrich, a longtime Washington player who has become a Tea Party favorite. The battle lines have been drawn, but who will win?
With the polls this volatile, I’m not prepared to make any predictions. As we have seen even in just the last few days, big swings are common, and neither Romney nor Gingrich have been able to hold leads, and advertising and/or debate performances may be swaying the voters. Whatever the case may be, the only one that matters will be the one taken on Tuesday.
As for why it matters, that’s obvious. Florida is a winner-take-all state, for one thing, and is the first big state to vote. For either of the two major candidates to take the state would be huge for future positioning. Throughout February, a number of states would have caucuses and there are a few primaries towards the end, and a victory in Florida could help them build a wave of momentum into the March primaries and caucuses where many more states would get in on the act. A poor result here has been known to doom campaigns in the past.
Will the nomination belong to the winner of Florida? Maybe, maybe not. There will still be 46 states and a number of territories yet to figure out its choice, so it’s difficult to say that it would be over, but the winner might come out with a distinct advantage going forward. Neither Romney nor Gingrich will drop out regardless of which of them wins, but one of them will definitely have an upper hand come Wednesday morning.
