President Barack Obama’s campaign has been waiting for a Republican challenger to emerge, and some had thought that by now, we might have a clear image of who it is. The fact is, however, we know less about their situation today than we did yesterday, thanks to a clean sweep by former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.
On Tuesday, two caucuses were held in Minnesota and Colorado, while a non-binding primary took place in Missouri. Santorum took all three; he won Missouri and Minnesota substantially, and won a narrow but nevertheless impressive victory in Colorado. Newt Gingrich was not on the ballot in Missouri, allowing Santorum to easily shore up his numbers and win all 114 counties in the state, while Santorum continued his Iowa magic just to the north in Minnesota. As for Colorado, this result was particularly devastating for Romney: he won the Colorado caucuses by 42% in 2008, or 60% to 18% for John McCain.
The only thing that prevented Santorum’s Tuesday from being even better is the fact that since Missouri’s primary was non-binding, there were no delegates awarded. Technically, while it was a win, he’s got nothing to show for it aside from bragging rights. Regardless, it was a thumping in the Show Me State.
There had been a building sense of “inevitability” surrounding Romney’s campaign, as he had won the most states and was clearly leading in the early delegate count. Now, Santorum has taken more, and three different candidates have won races while Ron Paul has finished second in several. Clearly, this is still anyone’s ball game.
What becomes now of Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul? It is still far too early to say, but what we do know is that this long, brutal fight will continue. We haven’t even hit “Super Tuesday” in March yet, which should help somewhat clear up the picture, but as it stands right now, there is yet to be an official “not-Romney” candidate. Leaving Paul out of that discussion, because he draws from an entirely different type of voter (as in, libertarians), the “conservative alternative” candidate is still undecided. Nationally, Gingrich and Santorum poll pretty closely to one another, and their combined vote total is more than that of Romney, but both are in it to win it. Gingrich has all but vowed to go to the mattresses to stop Romney, while Santorum just won three more states and has no reason at all to drop out now.
If this indecision continues, one thing which could result is something we have not seen in modern politics: a brokered convention. The last time a presidential nominee was selected by a divided party convention was Adlai Stevenson in 1952, and though the specter of one has been raised in elections such as 1976, it hasn’t happened. If no one candidate pulls away and gets the necessary number of delegates (1,144), a nominee outside of the existing field of candidates could emerge as a “consensus choice.” It’s still unlikely that this will come to pass, but so long as conservatives remain divided yet Romney keeps letting his momentum stall, there will not be a clear winner for quite some time.
